A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
